Articles

Availability Heuristic and Decision Making

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A great article that sums up very well the science of availability:  https://www.verywellmind.com/availability-heuristic-2794824 " When you are trying to make a decision, a number of related events or situations might immediately spring to the forefront of your thoughts. As a result, you might judge that those events are more frequent or probable than others. You give greater credence to this information and tend to overestimate the probability and likelihood of similar things happening in the future." "Faced with the need for an immediate decision, the availability heuristic allows people to quickly arrive at a conclusion." "Heuristics play an important role in how we make decisions and act upon information in the world around us. The availability heuristic can be a helpful tool, but it is also important to remember that it can sometimes lead to incorrect assessments."

Chapter 12 - The science of availability

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The science of availability  Availability heuristic = the process of judging frequency by “the ease with which instances come to mind”. Both systems are involved. It is a heuristic of judgement which substitutes one question for another: you wish to estimate the size of a category/frequency of an event, but you report an impression of the ease with which instances come to mind. It is indeed a systematic error which can lead to biases. How to realize that it creates a bias? You have to make a list of factors that are not frequency that make it easy to come up with instances. Each of these factors will be a potential source of bias. Examples: è   A striking event will be easily be remembered. Divorces among Hollywood celebrities and sex scandals among politicians attract a lot of attention. Indeed, you will have many examples of it. Therefore, you will be likely to exaggerate the frequency of Hollywood divorces and political sex scandals è ...
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GROUP DISCUSSION class 4 chapter 4 - the associative machine Examples of priming :  Emlyon posters in the campus hall - we already have an image of emlyon before entering on the campus, so it makes no difference on what we think As we are enrolled in the school, we know the reality and are not influenced by posters. Chapter 7 : A machine for jumping to conclusions Examples of confirmation bias :  If one member of the group knows the room the course takes place in, and someone asks this person if he or he’s is really 100% sure, then this person will start to doubt what he knows. If we are all donating for a grouped gift, I planned to give 5euros, and I hear my neighbor say she is going to give 20 euros. She will influence me so I will maybe give 15. In the professional area, when each person has to give its point of view, your boss's idea will be a confirmation bias, and you will propose a idea that is not too far away from his idea...

Nudging

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Concept of behavioral science that used indirect suggestions to influence you and make you do something. Nudge is based on mental bias and take profit of it when you have to take a decision. The one who is the aim of the nudge is never forced to do the thing but is only encouraged in a subtile way to do so. Nudge is used a lot into airport, commercial centers, but also by the government itself. Obama administration manage to make multiple millions of savings only by putting up the temperature of 1 degree in state buildings. Doing so, people wouldn’t put the temperature 3 or 4 degrees upper like they used to do before. He also used a by-default saving plan very hard for people to deactivate. By this and using the fact that people don’t like to make choices (bias), savings in USA grew a lot. Pushes you to do something you wouldn’t do : Makes you take conscience of things :  Uses games and your will to play : Makes cars go slower by making them believe t...